“Back to Life!”

Hi There! The highlight of my Mother’s Day weekend was talking to my daughter for hours. She’s miles away serving our country, and while we text all the time, nothing compares to hearing her voice. We ended up talking about something that’s been ringing loud in both our lives lately, change.

The only constant in life is change. Whether we like it or not, it’s the formula for growth.

I reminded her that the people who stand beside you today might fade into the background tomorrow; not out of malice, but because life shifts. Folks drift. Priorities change. Circumstances move people in different directions. We cannot always count on others to understand or even acknowledge the weight we carry or the wins we earn. That’s why your strength can’t come from others; it has to come from you.

You build your grit. You sharpen your skills. You protect your peace. You pour into yourself - spiritually, emotionally, and intellectually. So, when the applause fades and the room empties, you are still solid. You are still standing.

Be grateful for the support you have, but don’t let your balance depend on it. So, when life flips the script, you will already be grounded and ready to face whatever comes next. 

Alright, let’s dig in!

U.S. Markets Recap (May 4 - May 10, 2025)

Last week, markets started with a sigh of relief and ended with a dose of caution. The long-awaited breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations arrived over the weekend, sending stocks soaring in pre-market trading. The U.S. agreed to slash tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated with a reduction from 125% to 10%. These reduced tariffs will be in effect for 90 days as talks continue.

Despite this game-changing development, U.S. equities struggled to maintain momentum through the week. Major indices pulled back after a nine-day winning streak, with value and small caps holding steadier than their growth-heavy counterparts. Meanwhile, Treasury yields whipsawed midweek, and commodities rebounded broadly, lifted by shifting trade sentiment and a softer U.S. dollar.

Equities:

After two strong weeks, U.S. equities paused, snapping their winning streak as investors weighed trade optimism against ongoing uncertainty. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished slightly lower. Notably:

• Small caps (Russell 2000) outperformed, finishing flat.

• Value stocks edged out growth names as investors leaned toward more defensive plays.

• Lyft surged after boosting its share buyback plan and reporting strong consumer demand.

The pullback was triggered early in the week when reports revealed no confirmed U.S.-China meeting, sparking concerns over the durability of recent trade progress. However, sentiment improved later after confirmation of a meeting in Switzerland and the signing of a first-phase agreement. Also adding to optimism: the announcement of a U.S.-U.K. trade framework.

Fixed Income:

Bond markets were volatile:

• Yields dipped midweek following a well-received 10-year Treasury auction and the Fed’s rate hold.

• But Thursday brought a sharp reversal, with yields spiking after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and President Trump’s risk-on rhetoric.

• The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index finished the week with a minor loss.

Investors walked away from bonds as the narrative shifted from caution to risk appetite by week's end.

Commodities:

• Crude oil (WTI) rebounded, supported by easing U.S.-China tensions and signs that the OPEC+ price war may be cooling.

• Gold climbed modestly despite Thursday’s equity rally, buoyed by a weaker dollar on Friday.

• The Bloomberg Commodities Index posted its first gain in three weeks, driven by broad-based buying.

Currencies:

Despite a dip on Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index held a narrow weekly gain, aided by the Fed’s steady-hand stance and positive trade commentary from the White House.

• EUR/USD: -0.42%

• GBP/USD: +0.26%

• USD/JPY: +0.28%

U.S. Economic Recap (May 4 - May 10, 2025)

• Rates held steady as expected, with Chair Powell reiterating the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach.

  • Powell acknowledged risks to both employment and inflation, noting that persistent tariffs could tip the economy toward stagflation—a toxic mix of slow growth and sticky inflation.

  • The Fed remains cautious, citing "sideways" inflation and a murky path forward for monetary policy.

• ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6, showing modest expansion in service sectors.

• Manufacturing data sent mixed signals: ISM Manufacturing fell to 48.7 (contracting), while S&P Global Manufacturing held steady at 50.2.

• New orders ticked up across food services, wholesale, and retail sectors.

• Employment in services contracted for the second month, raising red flags for the next payroll report.

• Prices paid surged; the highest since January 2023, fueling inflation concerns.

Global Markets Recap (May 4 - May 10, 2025)

Europe:

• Markets in the region edged higher on better-than-expected earnings and optimism around global trade deals.

• The German DAX hit a new all-time high, while British stocks slipped after hawkish commentary from the Bank of England despite a surprise rate cut.

Asia:

• Stocks climbed across most major Asian markets thanks to:

  • PBOC rate cuts

  • Expanded consumer lending programs

  • Renewed U.S.-China trade optimism

• Taiwan Semiconductor reported strong sales, lifting Taiwan’s market.

• Tensions between India and Pakistan dragged regional indices lower.

Crypto Recap (May 4 - May 10, 2025)

The crypto market caught fire last week, led by Ethereum and a pivotal network upgrade:

• Ethereum (ETH): +27%

• Solana (SOL): +16.7%

• Bitcoin (BTC): +6.3% (back over $100,000)

• XRP: +6.1%

Ethereum Pectra Upgrade:

• Key Improvements:

  • Reduced gas fees and congestion

  • Doubled capacity for Layer 2 solutions

  • Increased staking limits (32 ETH → 2,048 ETH) for validators

• Institutional buying surged: ~85,000 ETH withdrawn from Binance + $1B in new Tether (USDT) minted

Bitcoin ETF Spotlight:

• BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) pulled in $6.96B YTD, overtaking the SPDR Gold Trust’s $6.5B.

• Despite gold outperforming Bitcoin price-wise (+29% YTD vs. BTC's 3.8%), investor appetite for BTC exposure remains strong, especially via institutional channels.

Top crypto gainers last week: WIF, PI, PEPE

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Chainlink to start new community rewards program for LINK stakers.

• Tether AI platform to support Bitcoin and USDT payments.

• Adidas partners gaming project Xociety to launch NFT Collection on Sui Network.

• VaultBridge: A new revenue Lego for EVM chains.

The bulls are back this week!

U.S. Economic Releases so far this week:

• CPI Inflation (Tuesday):

  • Monthly CPI rose just 0.2% (vs. 0.3% est.)

  • Annual CPI now at 2.3%, lowest since Feb 2021

  • Core CPI held steady at 2.8% Y/Y

  • Markets welcomed the cooler-than-expected data as a positive signal for Fed policy

Upcoming U.S. Economic Releases:

• Thursday, May 15

  • PPI Inflation

  • Retail Sales

  • Jobless Claims

  • NY Fed Manufacturing Index

  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

• Friday, May 16

  • Building Permits

  • Housing Starts

  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

  • Inflation Expectations

Fed speeches this week:

• Mon: FOMC Member Kugler

• Wed: Waller, Vice Chair Jefferson, Daly

• Thurs: Chair Powell, FOMC Member Barr

• Fri: Daly

Earnings: 

Notable earnings for the week is outlined in red in the chart below.

Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:

Week 5/04/25 - 5/10/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies - OTC Stocks

You may have heard of OTC stocks and wondered what they are. Well, these aren't your typical blue-chip companies (like Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon) that make headlines on CNBC. They trade outside the NYSE and NASDAQ.

I won't sugarcoat it. OTC stocks aren't for the faint of heart. They live in a financial frontier where heart-stopping volatility is the norm and transparency is optional.

However, for investors willing to roll up their sleeves and do the detective work, these overlooked opportunities can deliver high returns; but, they come with high risk.

Here’s what you need to know about OTC stocks, how to research them, and one to consider for your watchlist.

What Are OTC Stocks?

OTC stands for Over-the-Counter stocks. Unlike traditional stocks that trade on centralized exchanges like the NYSE or NASDAQ, OTC stocks are traded through a decentralized dealer network. Here's how they differ:

Key Differences:

• No centralized exchange: OTC trades are executed via broker-dealer networks.

• Less regulation: Many OTC companies aren't subject to the same reporting requirements.

• Wider variety of companies: From startups and foreign firms to bankrupt companies.

OTC Marketplaces:

Why Are OTC Stocks Volatile?

OTC stocks are often volatile due to several compounding factors:

• Lower liquidity: Fewer buyers and sellers can lead to larger price swings.

• Less public information: Companies may not be required to report financials.

• Lower institutional ownership: Fewer mutual funds and banks means less price support.

• Speculative trading patterns: Prone to rapid booms and busts.

Example: A $0.10 stock could double on light volume and collapse just as quickly if no buyer steps in. That kind of movement isn’t unusual in the OTC space.

How Do OTC Stocks Work?

Instead of a centralized system matching buyers and sellers, OTC trades are handled by market makers (dealers) through broker networks.

Trading Mechanics:

• Quoting system: Prices are displayed on the OTC Markets platform.

• Bid-ask spreads: Typically wider than exchange-listed stocks.

• Execution: Orders are routed through brokers connected to dealer networks like OTC Link.

Your Experience:

• Trades may take longer to fill.

• You may not get the exact price you see due to slippage.

• Not all brokers support OTC trades, so check availability.

Benefits and Risks of Trading OTC Stocks

How to Research OTC Stocks

Good research is your first and best line of defense in OTC trading. Due diligence requires more digging than with blue-chip stocks.

Start With These Resources:

• OTCMarkets.com: Check financials, filings, and tier status.

• SEC.gov/EDGAR: Search for company disclosures.

• Investor.gov: Learn to spot scams and fraud indicators.

Research Checklist:

Red Flags:

• Vague or overly promotional statements

• Sudden trading volume spikes without news

• Frequent shifts in business model or leadership

• Trades under $0.01 (often called "sub-penny" stocks)

OTC Stock to Watch

Company: Barrel Energy Inc. (Symbol: BRLL)

Tier: OTC Pink

Industry: Green Energy / Battery Minerals

Why It Caught Our Eye:

• Focused on clean energy and AI-based mineral exploration

• Operates AI mining center supporting hyperspectral imaging research

• Recent press releases indicate project development activity

Research Breakdown:

• ✘ Not current on financial disclosures

• ✔ Clear focus on emerging energy technology

• ✘ No reported revenue; speculative business model

• ✘ High share count (~382M) raises dilution concerns

BRLL operates in promising sectors but comes with high risk due to its Pink Sheet status, lack of recent filings, and unclear financials. Investors should approach with caution and confirm legitimacy before making a move.

(Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Do your own research.)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.