“Bruh, It's Red!”

Hi there! Spring is officially here! There’s something about the shift in seasons that always feels like a quiet nudge from nature. The days get a little warmer, the air a little lighter, and just like that, I find myself pausing. This is an opportunity for me to assess my progress. I measure my steps against the path I laid out for myself at the start of the year. What worked? What didn’t? And more importantly, why? I don’t measure my success against anyone else’s. It’s me versus me and all that I set out to do. The goals I wrote down. The promises I made to myself. Have I been sharpening my skills? Have I been creating value in the spaces I move through? If something threw me off track, I need to understand it, adjust, and keep chipping away. No need to start over. No need to panic. Just realign and move.

Spring reminds me that life is all about ebbs and flows. Spring also reminds me that balance is the key. I see the Springtime as a season of wholeness. A reminder that even as things shift, there is always space to reset, refocus, and move forward.

Here’s to making the necessary adjustments. Here’s to welcoming the season for what it is. Spring is the time for a fresh start, a gentle push, a time to keep going!

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last Week’s Market Overview (March 9 - March 15, 2025)

The selloff in U.S. equities continued last week as uncertainty surrounding trade policies and economic conditions weighed on investor sentiment. International markets were mixed, with European and Asian indices responding to local developments and ongoing tariff concerns. Treasury yields ended relatively unchanged, while gold surged toward record highs and oil prices finished the week near their starting levels. Stocks did attempt a comeback midweek, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their best session of the year, but all three major U.S. indices still ended the week in the red.

U.S. Markets Recap

Equities:

Market uncertainty dragged the major indices lower once again, marking the sixth weekly loss in seven weeks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Investors rotated toward defensive value stocks, and small caps, despite extending their losses, managed to outperform the S&P 500. A key driver of the selloff was the implementation of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which triggered swift countermeasures from the EU and Canada. While Canada and the U.S. resolved their dispute quickly, tariff tensions between Europe and the U.S. intensified, impacting stocks across multiple industries.

Corporate America also faced policy-driven uncertainty, as several major firms, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Verizon (VZ) issued warnings about softening demand. Economic data did little to support equities, with weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment and hotter inflation expectations exacerbating selling pressure. However, a late-week rally helped trim losses, though the overall tone remained bearish.

Fixed Income:

Treasuries ended the week relatively flat, with minimal movement in yields after Tuesday’s uptick. The corporate bond market, however, showed signs of stress, as spreads in both investment-grade and high-yield bonds widened amid economic uncertainty. High-yield spreads climbed by 0.80% from February lows, while spreads on riskier CCC-rated debt expanded by 1.25%. Despite this recent widening, spreads remain historically tight, suggesting that investors have yet to fully price in recession risks.

Commodities:

• Oil: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw minor gains, supported by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. However, concerns over an oversupplied market due to OPEC+ production increases and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war capped further upside.

• Gold: Safe-haven demand pushed gold toward the $3,000 per ounce mark, bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased speculation around Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly last week, as trade policy uncertainties put downward pressure on the currency. While the greenback faced resistance from a stronger euro and yen, it managed to find some support from ongoing tariff concerns.

U.S. Economic Recap (March 9 - March 15, 2025)

• CPI Data: Inflation eased slightly, with consumer prices rising just 0.2% month-over-month. The annual inflation rate dropped to 2.8%, down from 3.0% the previous month. However, rising shelter costs continued to exert inflationary pressure.

• Labour Market: The job market remained tight, with strong hiring in healthcare and social assistance sectors. The quits rate increased in construction and information sectors, signaling confidence among workers in those industries. Layoffs in government positions declined but are expected to rise in the coming months

Global Markets Recap (March 9 - March 15, 2025)

Europe:

European equities ended broadly lower as U.S. tariff measures dampened sentiment. Germany saw some relief after a major debt-funded infrastructure package was set to pass, but this was not enough to offset the week’s losses.

Asia:

Asian markets struggled, with early-week U.S. market weakness driving selloffs across the region. However, China managed to recover late in the week following an announcement of upcoming fiscal and monetary support measures.

Crypto Recap (March 9 - March 15, 2025)

• The total crypto market cap fell 6% after President Trump’s latest trade policies triggered risk-off sentiment across financial markets. Bitcoin dropped 3.4% to $79,415, while Ethereum plunged 9.4% to $1,963.

• The announcement of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve failed to inspire confidence, as it only included seized Bitcoin rather than new purchases.

• Robinhood continued its crypto expansion, listing new memecoins like PENGU, PNUT, and POPCAT in response to rising retail demand.

• Top crypto gainer last week: Kaspa (KAS).

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Spain’s second-largest bank BBVA to offer customers Bitcoin, Ethereum trading.

• Sui Foundation onboards Blockaid to enhance ecosystem security.

• Taproot Wizards to hold first public auction of 'Wizards' Bitcoin Ordinals project.

• ‘My Pet Hooligan’ to launch on Arbitrum 'Studio Chain' for Games/Entertainment.

• Mercado Bitcoin, Polygon Labs look to issue $200M worth of tokenized assets.

This is an exciting week in the markets!

Key U.S. Economic Releases & Results:

• Retail Sales (Mon.): Up 0.2% in February, well below the expected 0.6%, fueling concerns over slowing economic momentum.

• Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mon.): Tumbled to -20.0, significantly worse than expected (-1.9) and marking the lowest reading since March 2024.

• Building Permits (Tues.): Fell 1.2% to 1.456 million, the lowest since October 2024.

• Housing Starts (Tues.): Rose 11.2% MoM but remained 2.9% lower YoY, indicating a mixed housing market outlook.

• Fed Rate Decision (Wed.): The Fed held rates at 4.50% but reiterated expectations for two cuts in 2025.

Upcoming U.S. Economic Events: 

• Jobless Claims (Thurs.)

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thurs.)

• Existing Home Sales (Thurs.)

Other Key Events:

• Nvidia GTC 2025 (Tues.): The AI-focused conference featured discussions on AI, robotics, and accelerated computing. Investors will be watching for advancements in AI applications across industries.

Fed speakers this week:

• Fed Chair Powell (Wed) acknowledged an increased probability of a recession over the past two months.

• The FOMC’s updated Dot-Plot reaffirmed expectations for two rate cuts in 2025.

  

  Source: Federal Reserve Board Summary of Economic Projections, March 2025

Earnings: 

Key Earnings Releases to watch this week are outlined in red in the chart below.

Global Economic Events This Week:

Trading Tip:

“ Crypto-Related Stocks to watch: COIN and HOOD!”

Week 3/09/25 - 3/15/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies

These past few weeks, I’ve walked you through specialized platforms for different trading markets. We covered oil and energy stocks in Issue #121, gold and metals in Issue #122, and crypto trading in Issue #123. This week is the final piece of the puzzle and another powerful all-in-one platform called Forex Factory.

What is Forex Factory?

Forex Factory is a popular online platform designed for traders and investors in the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It provides real-time market data, economic calendars, and a highly active community forum to help traders make informed decisions.

While it is Forex-focused, its tools can also benefit those trading in the stock market who want to track economic events and trends that may impact global equities and commodities.

Understanding the Forex Factory Platform

1. Centralized Trading Hub

Forex Factory started as a trading forum but has evolved into a multifaceted trading platform that serves traders at all levels, from beginners to professionals.

2. Real-Time Insights

The platform offers up-to-the-minute market analysis, price movements, and economic event schedules, keeping traders ahead of market shifts.

3. Market Impact Forecasting

Forex Factory helps traders anticipate volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly by tracking upcoming economic events and potential market impacts.

Main Features of Forex Factory

1. Economic Calendar

One of Forex Factory’s most powerful tools is its Economic Calendar, which lists upcoming economic events and assigns them impact ratings:

• Low Impact (yellow) – Minor economic events that typically do not cause much volatility.

• Medium Impact (orange) – Events that can influence market movements.

• High Impact (red) – Major news events like central bank rate decisions, GDP reports, and employment data, which can cause significant price swings.

Why it matters: If you trade Forex or even stocks, knowing when high-impact events are scheduled can help you avoid unnecessary risk or position yourself for profit.

2. Market News & Analysis

• Real-time updates on global economic developments.

• Expert commentary on market trends and how they may affect various currency pairs.

• Analysis of financial reports, geopolitical events, and central bank decisions that could impact the markets.

3. Community & Learning Tools

Trading Forums: Forex Factory is home to one of the largest trading forums, where traders share insights, discuss strategies, and post real-time trade ideas. This is a valuable resource for learning and market discussion.

Trading Journals: The platform allows traders to create personal trading journals where they can document their trades, strategies, and lessons learned for continuous improvement.

Technical Tools: There are customizable charts and indicators to help traders perform in-depth technical analysis. The platform also has trend identification tools that assist traders in making data-driven decisions.

Advanced Trading Features

For those looking to take their trading to the next level, Forex Factory also offers several advanced features:

1. Market Impact Tool

• Analyzes past and present economic data to provide real-time market volatility forecasts.

• Helps traders predict potential price reactions to upcoming events.

2. Broker Comparison

• Compares different Forex brokers based on factors like spreads, leverage, and customer reviews.

• Helps traders select the best broker suited to their needs.

3. Trade Explorer

• A powerful tool for tracking trading performance, equity growth, and trade metrics.

• Allows traders to analyze their win/loss ratios, risk management, and profitability.

4. Mobile App

• Stay connected to market updates on the go with Forex Factory’s mobile-friendly platform.

• Receive real-time alerts on economic calendar events, news, and market movements.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.