“Day By Day!”

Hi there! You ever realize how some days just line up in a way that makes you pause and smile? This past Sunday was one of those rare days where Easter Sunday, 420, and Orthodox Easter all shared the same date. On paper, it might seem like a mix of opposites. But when I sat with it, a deeper meaning unfolded.

Easter is traditionally associated with themes of rebirth and resurrection. The significance of 420, though different, is recognized by some as a day of reactivation, relaxation, and personal reflection. Both observances celebrate renewal and the resurgence of life after periods of dormancy. They symbolize a warming up and a gentle encouragement to re-engage with the world, especially after a long winter into spring.

To me, the convergence of these dates can be seen as an invitation to recognize commonalities rather than differences. It serves as a reminder that respect, kindness, and shared experiences hold significant value. Regardless of one's background or beliefs, this overlap highlights the potential for unity and mutual understanding.

Let us welcome the principles of unity, warmth, and clarity in our interactions and daily lives. The world would benefit greatly from such an approach.

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last week, the markets took a breather on Good Friday, but not before wrapping up a bumpy, shortened week in negative territory. Tariff turmoil and renewed policy uncertainty kept investors on edge, dragging all three major U.S. indexes into the red. Even chocolate eggs weren’t enough to sweeten the mood.

While U.S. equities lost ground, European and Asian markets pushed higher, buoyed by glimmers of progress in global trade negotiations and optimism from regional central banks. Commodities surged, with gold breaking new records, while Treasuries found new life as a haven once again.

Sector rotation continued, with Real Estate, Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples leading the market. And in a perfect snapshot of today’s uncertainty, United Airlines rose on the strength of two earnings forecasts: one for a stable economy, one for a potential recession. Welcome to 2025!

U.S. Markets Recap

Equities:

After a powerful relief rally the prior week, markets slipped back into caution mode. Despite a calm start, tech stocks bounced early on after President Trump temporarily exempted consumer electronics from tariffs. However, momentum faded midweek after the White House launched national security probes into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, stoking fears of new sector-specific tariffs.

Then came Fed Chair Powell’s last Wednesday speech, which rattled markets further. Instead of delivering hoped-for dovish signals, Powell emphasized the Fed’s “wait for clarity” approach, which left equity investors empty-handed. Selling resumed, and indexes closed lower for the week:

• S&P 500: -1.50%

• Nasdaq: -2.62%

• Dow: -2.66%

• Russell 2000: Managed a modest weekly gain of +1.10%.

Further, big banks like Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), American Express (AXP), and Goldman Sachs (GS) beat expectations. So did United Airlines (UAL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and J.B. Hunt (JBHT). However, mixed guidance and economic worries kept a lid on investor enthusiasm.

Fixed Income:

Treasury yields fell, and volatility eased. Both are welcome signs after recent bond market chaos.

• 2-year yield: -0.16%

• 10-year yield: -0.17%

Investors were comforted by Powell’s measured tone, even without rate-cut promises. They were also hopeful by the bond market’s ability to absorb a $13B 20-year Treasury auction with solid demand. With inflation still in play and funding conditions stable, bonds resumed their traditional role as a safe haven.

Commodities:

• Oil (WTI): Rose for the first time this month after new U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude and continued OPEC+ output cuts.

• Gold: Exploded past $3,300/oz, supported by a weaker dollar, trade fears, and strong haven demand.

• Copper & Silver: Gained ground alongside broader commodity strength.

• Bloomberg Commodities Index: Lifted by strong midweek moves.

Currencies:

The U.S. Dollar wobbled, particularly in the second half of last week:

• EUR/USD: Flat overall after the ECB’s rate cut

• GBP/USD: +1.64% on easing trade fears

• JPY: Gained slightly against the dollar

Growth-sensitive currencies were mixed, while broad dollar weakness supported commodity gains late in the week.

U.S. Economic Recap (April 13 - April 19, 2025)

Retail Sales Show Signs of Life

March retail sales jumped 1.4%, driven by a rebound in auto purchases and a surprising 2% rise in restaurant spending. However, adjusting for inflation, Q1 retail sales were slightly negative—signaling that real growth is slowing, even if headline numbers look solid.

Import Prices Dip Pre-Tariff

Import prices fell 0.1% in March, defying expectations of a pre-tariff spike. Notably:

• Auto prices: Fell for a fourth straight month

• Household goods: Declined 0.2% again

• Aircraft parts: Trended up

This report reflects trade activity before tariffs kicked in, but it suggests a cooler global economy may help offset some inflationary effects from tariffs, at least for now.

Global Markets Recap (April 13 - April 19, 2025)

Europe:

• STOXX 600: +4% for the week

• Optimism over tariff reprieves and ECB rate cuts fueled gains early on

• U.K. labour data and weak German sentiment capped gains later in the week

• ASML’s disappointing order book weighed on tech

• Luxury stocks lagged due to sluggish Chinese demand

Asia:

• Broadly higher on tariff delay optimism, especially for electronics and auto-related names

• Apple supply chain stocks surged in Japan and China

• Trade talks with Japan and China lifted sentiment, despite ongoing U.S. probes

• Taiwan: Lagged, with continued semiconductor weakness

Crypto Recap (April 13 - April 19, 2025)

Crypto found some footing last week, with Bitcoin rising 1.3% and trading just above $85,000 by last Friday. The week saw spot Bitcoin ETFs log $14M in net inflows, reversing two weeks of outflows.

• Solana (SOL): +10% after Canadian regulators approved spot Solana ETFs

• Bitcoin Resistance: Holding below $86K; support at $83,500

• ETF flows: Renewed inflows are boosting institutional interest

As I type, Bitcoin hit a key level at $90,642, I mentioned in previous issues.  If price opens above this level we can see Bitcoin hitting $92,000 easily.

New Frontier: Bitcoin-Backed Treasury Bonds?

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel proposed a radical new idea at the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit:

“BitBonds” are 10-year Treasury bonds 90% traditional + 10% Bitcoin exposure

• Could help refinance $14 trillion in U.S. debt

• Offers inflation protection and crypto upside

• If Bitcoin outperforms, excess gains are split 50/50 between the government and bondholder

It’s a bold idea and a clear signal that traditional finance is seriously exploring crypto’s role in the future monetary system.

Mantra (OM) Token Collapse

The OM token lost 90% of its market cap in a flash crash, driven by:

• Panic selling after large insider wallet moved tokens to the exchange OKX

• Accusations of OTC manipulation

• Exchange-triggered liquidations

CEO John Mullin says the team is preparing a token burn plan to win back investor trust. But confidence in the project has taken a major hit. More to come on this crash.

Top crypto gainer last week: CORE, TAO, ASI, RENDER

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Stellar sees $3B of Real World Assets coming On-Chain in 2025.

• Eliza Labs launched auto.fun, a no-code AI spin on Pump.Fun.

• Bybit shuts down four more Web3 services after axing NFT marketplace.

• Polygon x Jio partnership to drive real-world Web3 adoption for 450M users.

This is another volatile week with big Earnings Releases!

U.S. Economic Releases:

• Wednesday: Services & Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales

• Thursday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales

• Friday: Consumer Sentiment

Fed speakers this week:

• Monday: Goolsbee

• Tuesday: Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Kugler

• Wednesday: Goolsbee, Waller, Hammack

• Thursday: Kashkari (again)

Earnings: 

This week is huge for earnings. Among those reporting:

• Tech: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC)

• Consumer & Staples: Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG)

• Transportation: American Airlines (AAL), Southwest (LUV)

• Telecom: T-Mobile (TMUS)

• Healthcare & Biotech: Elevance Health (ELEV)

Big beats might help boost sentiment, but guidance will be key as companies navigate the murky tariff landscape.

The key earnings releases to watch this week are outlined in red in the chart below.

Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:

Trading Tip:
“Computer Tech Sector (XCI) longs start mid-April and end mid-July!”

Week 4/13/25 - 4/19/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies - Stocktwits

What is Stocktwits?

Stocktwits is similar to Twitter (now X) and is intended for investors and traders to exchange information, identify trends, and share strategies. The platform was launched in 2008 by Howard Lindzon and Soren Macbeth, and has expanded to include over 1.3 million members. It combines market data with social sentiment, creating an environment where community interaction and charts are integrated.

For those new to investing, Stocktwits provides a user-driven method to learn from others while keeping up with real-time market developments.

Key Features at a Glance

1. Message Streams (Real-Time Market Chat)

• Organized by $cashtags (e.g. $AAPL, $TSLA)

• Follow trending topics, your personal watchlist, or specific users

• Includes a "Suggested" feed tailored to your interests

• Catch chart setups and earnings reactions right as they unfold

2. Chat Rooms (Investor Circles)

• Free & Premium rooms for every style: Day trading, swing trading, long-term investing

• Choose rooms by your investment goals, like dividend growth or crypto

• Ideal for those looking to find like-minded communities and stay accountable

3. Heat Maps & Trending Stocks

• Get a visual pulse on what’s hot in the market

• Heat maps show where trading activity and social buzz are concentrated

• Helps you focus on what really matters when your time and energy are limited

4. Robinhood Integration

• Trade directly from a Stocktwits stock page using your Robinhood account

• Easy click-to-execute trading for beginners who are already on mobile-friendly platforms

Importance of Stocktwits

For many individuals entering the market, confidence and community are essential. Stocktwits offers:

• Guidance through collective wisdom – Users can collaborate in their analysis.

• Access to both experienced and novice traders – Facilitates continuous learning.

• Supplementary research – Enhances the foundational knowledge being acquired.

• An opportunity to develop your investing voice – By posting, reading, or observing, users can gain proficiency in market terminology.

The Stocktwits team recognized that traditional financial forums can be daunting. Therefore, having a platform that is familiar, dynamic, and inclusive can provide a sense of empowerment.

Limitations to Keep in Mind

Stocktwits has a lot of value, but it’s not without its mess. Here’s what to watch out for:

• Noise: Not every post is golden. Expect hype, memes, and trolls. Use the mute or filter features wisely.

• Credibility issues: Anyone can post. A large following doesn’t always mean smart advice. Cross-reference tips with your own research.

• Ads: Yes, they’re there. And yes, they can be annoying. Free platforms often come with this trade-off.

Actionable Tips for Using Stocktwits Wisely

Is Stocktwits Valuable?

Certainly, if used appropriately. Stocktwits should not replace your fundamental research tools or financial education; however, it serves as an excellent supplement for real-time learning and community support. For novice investors seeking relatable insights and a less intimidating platform to inquire, observe strategies, and develop, Stocktwits can function as a stepping stone towards building confidence and enhancing trading/investing skills.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.