“Don't Make Me!”

Hi There! During my end-of-April check-in, I had one of those pause-and-breathe moments. The kind of moment where you stop and look back with a quiet kind of awe. Almost five years since I walked away from the corporate world, and whew… the path has been real ben-up (Grenadian dialect for crooked). What I feel most deeply right now is gratitude. Real, rooted gratitude. Not just for what I’ve accomplished, but for everything I’ve unlearned and the truths I’ve come to trust.

One of the biggest lessons: My worth has nothing to do with my job title, my income, or how productive I’ve been. I used to think they were all tied up together! Now I get it! Who I am is enough. Who I am in this present moment is enough. My self-worth lives in the quiet power of my spirit, the experiences I carry, and the way I love and connect with others. It’s not for sale. It’s not up for negotiation. And it sure ain’t measured by a paycheck.

This season I am tending to myself like a garden. Nourishing my roots. Listening to what my body and heart really need. Saying the hard things out loud. Making room for honesty. Because I know deep in my bones that this is my May flowers moment. I’ve weathered the storms. Now it’s time to bloom and continue to water myself wisely. 

Alright, let’s dig in!

U.S. Markets Recap (April 27 - May 3, 2025)

Last week, stocks finished strong to cap off a turbulent April, buoyed by upbeat economic data and renewed optimism around trade negotiations. The S&P 500 clinched a nine-day winning streak (its longest in over two decades) as signs emerged that the U.S. and China may return to the table. Meanwhile, earnings season kept the tape moving with mixed results across big tech. Overseas markets followed suit, while gold and oil both pulled back. Treasury yields rose as traders scaled back rate cut bets on the heels of surprisingly strong labour data.

Equities:

• Nasdaq: +3.42%. 

• S&P 500: +2.92%. 

• Dow: +3.00%. 

• Russell 2000: +3.23%. 

Bullish sentiment around trade and robust job numbers helped equities snap out of April’s funk. Tesla (TSLA) gained on self-driving vehicle policy developments. Alphabet (GOOGL) surged after reiterating its AI spending plans, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) also beat expectations. Apple (AAPL) beat on earnings but fell on weaker China sales. Amazon (AMZN) dropped after a soft profit outlook, despite upbeat AI commentary.

Fixed Income:

• 2-year yield: +0.08%

• 10-year yield: +0.08%

• Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Lower for the week

Strong economic data cooled hopes of an imminent Fed rate cut. Still, foreign demand for U.S. corporate bonds remains strong, even as Treasury bonds face increased scrutiny over their haven status.

Commodities:

• WTI Crude: -7%

• Gold: Lower for second week

Oil dropped sharply as OPEC+ signaled possible supply increases and Chinese demand faltered. Gold eased as haven demand faded amid trade optimism.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar edged higher for the week, buoyed by economic data and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.

U.S. Economic Recap (April 27 - May 3, 2025)

• Jobs: Payrolls rose by 177K in April, unemployment held steady, and long-term unemployment ticked up. The gig economy continues to fill gaps as inflation pressures incomes.

• GDP: Q1 contracted -0.3%, weighed down by surging imports (especially medical goods and electronics) and trade uncertainty. But core spending remained strong, with consumer services up 2.4%.

Global Markets Recap (April 27 - May 3, 2025)

Europe:

European equities climbed higher, lifted by U.S. trade deal bullishness. Earnings were broadly positive despite misses from automakers. Eurozone inflation remained sticky, and unemployment was unchanged.

Asia:

Asian markets posted a modest gain during a holiday-shortened week. Japan led the rally on tech strength. Mainland China lagged. The Bank of Japan kept rates steady but revised down its growth outlook.

Crypto Recap (April 27 - May 3, 2025)

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to its highest level in 10 weeks, reaching close to $98,000, breaking out of its tight recent range. ETF inflows supported the move, though derivatives suggest neutral sentiment for now.

Crypto Headlines:

• Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster confirmed spot crypto trading is likely within 12 months, responding to increasing client interest and a friendlier regulatory climate.

• House Republicans are preparing to unveil a landmark digital asset bill before a May 6 hearing aimed at defining crypto market structure.

  • President Trump has signaled strong support for this legislation, particularly around stablecoins and a national Bitcoin reserve.

Top crypto gainer last week: DEXE, QNT, FLARE

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Major supermarket chain spar to launch Bitcoin payments across Switzerland.

• Claynosaurz expanded from Solana to Sui with new NFTs, upcoming game.

• Ethereum NFT horse racing game 'Zed Run' reborn on Base as 'Zed Champions'.

• Polygon Miden raised $25M to build the Edge Blockchain.

This is another crazy week in the markets!

U.S. Economic Releases so far this week:

• ISM Services PMI: 51.6 (expansion), but prices-paid hit a 2-year high.

• Trade Deficit: Record $140.5B in March as firms stockpiled goods ahead of July’s planned tariff hikes.

• Fed Rate Decision - Feds keeps interest rates the same at 4.50% as expected

Upcoming U.S. Economic Releases:

• Powell Press Conference (Wed. 2 PM ET)

• Consumer Credit (Wed.)

• Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories (Thurs.)

Fed speeches this week:

All eyes are on the rate decision and Powell’s tone at the press conference.

On Friday FOMC Members Waller, Barr, Kugler, Barkin, Williams, Goolsbee, Cook, Hammack, and Musalem speak.

Earnings: 

• Palantir (PLTR): Beat across the board and raised guidance

• Ford (F): Net income down 72%, withdrew full-year guidance due to tariffs

• AMD: Surged over 7% post-earnings on AI chip optimism

• Marriott (MAR): Strong quarter driven by higher occupancy and rates

Other names to watch are outlined in red in the chart below.

Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:

Week 4/27/25 - 5/03/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies - Magnificent 7 Stocks

In the past couple weeks, there has been a lot of chatter about the Magnificent 7 and their earnings releases and how tariffs will affect them. And no, I'm not talking about the movie. I'm talking about the stocks. The big kahunas of the stock market that have dramatically shaped investment returns and market movement. Having a clear understanding about these seven companies has become essential in today's market environment, especially if you're just starting your investment journey or looking to protect your retirement portfolio.

Introduction to the Magnificent 7

The "Magnificent 7" refers to seven U.S. tech-centric companies that have significantly influenced stock market trends:

• Amazon (AMZN)

• Tesla (TSLA)

• Nvidia (NVDA)

• Meta Platforms (META)

• Alphabet (GOOGL)

• Apple (AAPL)

• Microsoft (MSFT)

Collectively, these companies account for over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization as of early 2025. Their outsized influence on major indices and investment portfolios has earned them the "Magnificent" label, reflecting their innovation, earnings power, and ability to weather economic storms.

Individual Company Profiles

Amazon (AMZN)

• Business: E-commerce, cloud computing (AWS), digital advertising

• Growth Drivers: Cloud expansion, logistics infrastructure, generative AI services

• Recent Developments: Launched new AI assistant in AWS, expanding fulfillment network

Tesla (TSLA)

• Business: Electric vehicles, energy products, AI and robotics

• Growth Drivers: EV adoption, battery tech, autonomous driving

• Recent Developments: Price cuts to maintain market share, plans for a giga factory in Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Nvidia (NVDA)

• Business: Graphics processing units (GPUs), AI chips, data centers

• Growth Drivers: AI infrastructure, gaming, data center demand

• Recent Developments: Launched Blackwell AI chips, major supplier for generative AI firms

Meta Platforms (META)

• Business: Social media (Facebook, Instagram), WhatsApp, virtual reality (VR), AI

• Growth Drivers: Digital ad revenue, AI tools for creators, Metaverse development

• Recent Developments: Rebounded from ad slump, focusing on AI personalization tools

Alphabet (GOOGL)

• Business: Online search (Google), YouTube, cloud computing, AI

• Growth Drivers: Search ads, YouTube monetization, Google Cloud

• Recent Developments: Rolled out Gemini AI, expanding cloud AI services

Apple (AAPL)

• Business: Consumer electronics, software services, wearables

• Growth Drivers: Ecosystem lock-in, service subscriptions, hardware upgrades

• Recent Developments: Slower iPhone growth offset by wearables and services

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Business: Software (Windows, Office), Azure cloud, AI, LinkedIn

• Growth Drivers: Cloud demand, enterprise AI, gaming (Activision)

• Recent Developments: Copilot AI integration across Office suite, Azure growth surging

Historical Performance Analysis

Below is a snapshot of the 1-, 5-, and 10-year returns for each of the Magnificent 7 based on Fidelity Investments data as of April 11, 2025:

• Compared to S&P 500 (SPX), which had approx. 180% return over the same period

• These stocks outperformed during the post-2013 bull market and recovered strongly post-pandemic

• However, all seven stocks saw sharp declines during 2022's rate hike cycle and tech sector correction

Valuation Analysis

• Undervalued Today? Meta and Alphabet have forward P/E ratios below the tech sector average, suggesting possible undervaluation relative to growth.

• Overvalued Risks? Nvidia and Tesla command premium valuations (high P/E multiples) based on future growth assumptions.

Always compare valuation to growth prospects. Retirees should be cautious about overpaying for stocks that may be highly sensitive to economic cycles.

Dividend Information

Why it matters: Dividend income provides a stream of cash flow, especially for retirees. Stocks like Microsoft and Apple may offer balance between income and capital appreciation.

Investment Approaches for Different Life Stages

Beginners:

• Start with fractional shares or ETFs

• Use dollar-cost averaging (investing a set amount regularly)

• Focus on learning the business models and financials

Pre-Retirement:

• Shift from growth-heavy to a balanced portfolio

• Consider diversifying into dividend payers and defensive sectors

• Allocate based on time horizon and income needs

Retirees:

• Prioritize income, capital preservation, and reduced volatility

• Consider low-fee dividend ETFs with Magnificent 7 exposure

• Use systematic withdrawal strategies to avoid selling during downturns

Practical Investment Methods

• ETFs: QQQ, VGT, XLK, MAGS all have high Magnificent 7 weightings

• Fractional Shares: Available via platforms like Fidelity, Schwab, and Robinhood

• Index Funds: VFIAX (S&P 500), SWPPX are diversified but still hold these stocks

• Managed Funds: ARKK (growth tilt), T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth

Risk Considerations

• Concentration Risk: Owning only these 7 may leave you vulnerable to tech-specific downturns

• Regulatory Risk: Antitrust actions and global regulation may slow growth

• Valuation Risk: Some stocks are priced for perfection, any earnings miss can trigger sharp drops

• Age-Appropriate Caution: Retirees should limit single-stock exposure to manage drawdown risk

Future Outlook

• Opportunities: AI, cloud computing, EVs, subscription models, global expansion

• Challenges: Saturation in mature markets, geopolitical tensions, rising costs

• Economic Sensitivity: These companies tend to outperform in growth cycles but may underperform in rate-tightening or recessionary periods

Key Takeaways

• The Magnificent 7 have driven an outsized portion of recent market returns

• While they offer innovation and long-term growth potential, risks are real

• Your approach should match your life stage:

  • Beginners: Learn and build gradually

  • Pre-Retirees: Rebalance with caution

  • Retirees: Prioritize income and stability

Next Steps:

• Review your current exposure to these stocks (directly or via funds)

• Talk to a financial expert if nearing or in retirement

• Consider tools like risk tolerance questionnaires and retirement income calculators

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.