The First Cut is the Deepest!

Hi There! As I am about to start tapping away on this issue of the Rhoda Report, I can't help but remember the time I first moved to this city over two decades ago and mispronounced St. Louis.  Let me tell you, the people wasted no time correcting me.  It's not Saint Lou-EEE, it's Saint Lou-ISSS (🤣).  I mean, in my defense, every nook and cranny with a French name in this city is pronounced with a French accent.  Either way, Travel & Leisure named St. Louis as one of the "most beautiful and affordable" places to live.  Ain't no lies there!

Let's dig in!

The first quarter ended on a somewhat high note last week, with a slight easing in inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index came in a smidge lower than expected (  0.3% vs 0.4% expected).   This index excludes energy and food and is one of the Fed's preferred inflation metrics.  Based on the PCE data, investors anticipate an end to rate hikes in May or soon after.

Here are four tips to add to your journal for the month of March:

• Technology businesses often unveil new products and improvements that boost investor interest and stock values in March;

• Gold demand tends to go up in March making it a strong month for precious metals;

• The U.S. Federal Reserve meets in March to discuss monetary policy;

• A number of economic reports like inflation, gross domestic product estimates, and employment data are released in March. These reports typically impact the markets and investors sentiment.

Other key highlights from last week: 

• Indexes jumped on inflation data

• Oil settled 1% higher on tightening supplies

• Apple won appeal against UK's decision to investigate its mobile browser

• US Government sold $215M in seized Silk Road Bitcoin

• Get ready to collect and play with Candy Digital's new MLB offerings

• Polygon (MATIC) Network growth metric forms bullish divergence

Here's what to expect in the week ahead: 

We just started the month and already there have been some unexpected moves ahead of the Organization of Oil Producing Countries plus (OPEC+) Monthly meeting.  Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries announced oil output cuts. Oil prices surged 8% after this surprise and analysts warn that price may push to $100 per barrel. 

The following U.S. economic reports will be the center of focus: Jolt's Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, plus the ISM Manufacturing and Service Sector PMIs. 

Fed policymakers that are scheduled to speak during the week include Cleveland Fed President Mester, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and Fed Governor Cook.

The upcoming high-impact global news includes Rate Decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Germany Industrial Production Report release.

Next week's anticipated bias (not financial or investment advice):

• Monday (04/03/23) - Bullish on the first trading day of the month

• Tuesday (04/04/23) - Secure your profits

• Wednesday (04/05/23) - Trade after the news

• Thursday (04/06/23) - Set stops early in the morning

• Friday (04/07/23) - Stock Market is closed; Crypto is bullish

Trading Tip: ALTs are expected to do well until 4/24 unless there is unexpected news!

Week 03/26/23 - 04/01/23 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies 

Traders who are spooked by candlestick wicks frequently use Renko Charts.   So, what are they?

Renko charts are charts that only measure price movement.  Traders use these charts because they are easy to interpret.  Traders are able to identify basic support and resistance levels, breakouts, and are able to generate signals with the use of additional indicators. 

Renko charts:

• show volatility of the markets

• are different from traditional candlesticks or bar charts in that they ignore time and volume

• filter out noise

• are made of bars that are referred to as bricks. The size of each brick is pre-determined by the user. Each new brick formed is only added when price movement fills the re-determined brick size.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational.  The information provided in this report does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the report’s content as such.  Please be careful and do your own research.