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"Here We Go!"
Issue #26
Hi There! We made it to the end of April! There were some significant trends in the financial markets worth noting. For one, the dollar (DXY) typically takes a hit during April. On the flip side, both crypto and the traditional US markets tend to surge upwards. Make sure to add these insights to your trading journal for the next time April rolls around!
Okay, let's dig in!
Last week, investors were left without a clear direction as the markets whipsawed after days of conflicting news. Microsoft and Meta posted strong earnings reports, while Amazon's earnings fell short of expectations. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index came in slightly higher, signaling a continued trend of rising prices. Additionally, leading economic indicators suggest a weakening economy, and inflation remains stubbornly high. The anticipation of another 25 bps increase next week is expected to keep markets ranging.
Crude Oil finally closed that big gap we've been talking about for weeks. Looking at the daily chart for Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL), price quickly rebounded off a strong level of support at $74.19 as traders shrugged off recession worries. Price eventually rejected the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Some key levels to watch if price opens above $77.00 are $77.90 and $79.08. If price opens below $75.82, watch out for support at $75.20 and $73.84.
Bitcoin (BTC) barely moved during the month of April. Even with small bullish bursts, BTC price held close to $29,000, ahead of the Fed Interest Rate decision. Some analysts have pointed out that price has been holding above key weekly EMAs, signaling that the bears make be in trouble, especially if price opens above $30,968.90.
Other key highlights from last week:
Vatican Library embraces the digital age with blockchain and NFTs
Franklin Templeton Money Market Fund launched on Polygon Blockchain
Google Cloud and Polygon Labs announced their partnership during Consensus 2023
The week ahead is highly, news-driven:
The following U.S. economic reports will be the center of focus: the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), JOLTs Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims, and ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
This week's earnings releases are shown in the chart below. The big-name companies include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and Ford (NYSE: F).
The upcoming high-impact global news to watch includes the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision, the Euro Area Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Release, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision.
Next week's anticipated bias (not financial or investment advice):
Monday (05/01/23) - Expect the market to close strong
Tuesday (05/02/23) - Neutral day; trade what you see
Wednesday (05/03/23) - Afternoon trades are safer
Thursday (05/04/23) - Bearish
Friday (05/05/23) - Low volume
Trading Tip: Sell in May and walk away!
Week 04/23/23 - 04/29/23 Recap
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information provided in this report does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your own research.