"June too Soon!"

Issue #31

Hi There! It's hard to believe that June is already here! The days seem to be flying by so quickly. Anyhoot, here are some valuable trading insights to add to your journal for this month: June is historically a weaker month for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), with traders often looking for opportunities to short the asset during the early part of the New York trading session.

Alright, let's dig in!

Investors found solace in a resolution to the debt ceiling stalemate, leading to a notable upturn in the markets as last week came to a close. The U.S. Senate successfully passed bipartisan legislation to raise the government's debt ceiling, effectively preventing a potentially disastrous default. Despite the mixed jobs report, the prevailing bullish sentiment outweighed any concerns.

The Nasdaq, known for its strong tech presence, has seen a significant 33% gain in 2023 thus far. The S&P 500 has also shown an 11.5% year-to-date increase, reaching a 10-month high. It is noteworthy that the S&P 500 is nearing the 4,300 level, which has shown strong resistance in the past.

The "big five" - Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google parent), and Nvidia, now make up 25% of the S&P 500's market value. Speculation about their potential future gains, particularly with artificial intelligence (AI) advancements, has piqued interest. However, the concentration of this rally in a handful of stocks raises valid questions about the broader market's health and the potential for volatility if investors decide to shift away from these mega-cap holdings.

Other key highlights from last week:

  • Oil prices surge after Saudi pledges more supply cuts

  • U.S. House Republicans push for crypto oversight with a draft bill

  • Red Bull racing makes crypto history with Sui Network partnership

  • The complete beginner’s guide to NFTs on Polygon

  • Polygon-powered Web3 innovation is big in Japan

Watch the following closely this week:

This week, the U.S. market is anticipated to experience a period of tranquility as investors prepare themselves for the latest updates on inflation via the CPI and PPI indexes on June 13th . Additionally, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to reveal its decision on interest rates on June 14th .

U.S. economic news to pay attention to includes the ISM Services PMI, Trade Balance Data, and the Initial Jobless Claims.

Earnings releases for the week are shown in the chart below. Most notable companies are outlined in red.

Today (6/5/2023), the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde testified before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Other high-impact global news events to keep an eye on include the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decisions. It’s worth paying attention to Germany’s Trade Balance, Factory Orders, and Industrial Production.

Mid-week, we can also expect updates on the global economic outlook from the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), including the latest projections for global growth.

Next week's anticipated bias (not financial or investment advice):

  • Monday (06/05/23) - Trade after 9a CST

  • Tuesday (06/06/23) - Expect a bullish continuation

  • Wednesday (06/07/23) - Bearish

  • Thursday (06/08/23) - Expect volatility; start looking for highs

  • Friday (06/09/23) - Be cautious - Volume and Sentiment rule

Trading Tip: United Parcel Service (UPS) price tends to move up in June!

Week 05/28/23 - 06/03/23 Recap

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information provided in this report does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your own research.