"Rock with it!"

Hi There! I am back in the lush landscapes of Grenada. Once again, I found myself indulging in the island's vibrant life and exquisite flavours. Just last Saturday, my adventures took me hashing through the Cocoa area in the picturesque Paradise, St. Andrew - the eastern part of the island. While the hash itself was mesmerizing, the true highlight awaited at the end — a bowl of piping hot “Mannish Waters”. Known not just for its bold, yummilicious taste but also as a natural aphrodisiac, or as the locals say, "good for the back," this dish stands as a vivid tribute to Grenada's rich culinary heritage. The meticulous preparation, a ritual of love and attention to detail, makes “Mannish Waters” an experience. Words scarcely capture the essence of this Grenadian staple.

If your curiosity is piqued and your taste buds intrigued, click here to watch the careful crafting of Grenadian “Mannish Waters”, from the intentional prep work to the final, unforgettable flavour.

 Alright, let’s dig in!

Last week marked a milestone in the stock market, with the S&P 500 and the Dow clinching all-time highs. This surge was propelled by robust performances in the tech sector, pushing the S&P to surpass its previous records from January 2022. The S&P 500 ascended by 1.2%, the Dow inched up over 1%, and the Nasdaq stole the spotlight with a 1.7% leap.

Strong retail sales data and positive consumer sentiment nudged investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to May, a shift from the earlier forecast of March. However, it wasn't all positive news. The housing market seemed to falter, with annual reports unveiling that existing home sales in 2023 plummeted to their slowest pace in three decades.

The energy sector presented a mixed picture. Oil prices dipped slightly on Friday, yet overall, the week was favourable for the oil market. Tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in oil production balanced out concerns over the Chinese and global economies. Brent oil recorded a modest weekly increase of about 0.5%, while U.S. crude marked a more significant rise, topping over 1%.

In the tech world, AMD stood out with its shares leaping forward. This boost was fueled by heightened optimism around AI, prompting analysts to revise their price targets upwards. Barclays, for instance, elevated its price target for AMD shares from $120 to $200, while KeyBanc nudged theirs to $195 from $170. Despite these optimistic revisions, the median price target among analysts remained more conservative at $145, up from $130 a month prior.

In crypto, Bitcoin (BTC) saw its price dip below the $40,000 mark, the first such instance since December. In contrast, Celestia ($TIA) emerged as the standout performer of the week. Additionally, the crypto community stayed on alert for potential airdrops from Dymension, Saga, and Manta, hinting at dynamic movements in the decentralized finance space.

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Space Company Axiom debuts NFT art auction ahead of ISS mission

• Unstoppable Domains launched badge-gated group chat feature

• Polygon Labs selected to tokenized asset coalition

Here are key U.S. events to watch this week:

• Wednesday:

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

  • S&P Global Services PMI

• Thursday:

  • Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Durable Goods Orders

  • Goods Trade Balance

  • New Home Sales

• Friday:

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation reading (a key indicator for assessing the future path of interest rates)

The most anticipated earnings releases this week, including Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA)are outlined in the chart below.

This Week’s High-Impact Global Economic Data Highlights:

• Interest Rate Decisions:

  • China, Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), and European Central Bank (ECB)

• Eurozone and UK PMIs

• German January Ifo Business Climate Report

Trading Tip: Gaps often get “filled” because they show areas of imbalance in the market!

Week 1/14/23 - 1/20/24 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies

The Bitcoin (BTC) halving is rapidly approaching, with less than 100 days left. Here's a comprehensive summary of what the Bitcoin halving is and what it signifies for traders and investors:

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

• Definition & Mechanism:

  • Occurs approximately every four years.

  • Miner rewards for validating new blocks are cut in half.

  • Designed to create scarcity, similar to precious metals like gold.

• Past Halvings:

  • Started with 50 BTC per block.

  • Rewards halved each time, with the most recent (May 2020) being 6.25 BTC.

  • The upcoming halving in mid-April 2024 will reduce it further to 3.175 BTC.

• Market Implications:

  • Significant impact on Bitcoin's supply.

  • Can influence market dynamics and the cryptocurrency’s value.

Bitcoin Halving History & Effects:

• 2012 Halving:

  • Reduced reward to 25 BTC.

  • Price rose from $13 to $1,174 the following year.

• 2016 Halving:

  • Reduced reward to 12.5 BTC.

  • Price soared from $664 to nearly $20,000 the next year.

• 2020 Halving:

  • Reduced reward to 6.25 BTC.

  • Price skyrocketed from $9,734 to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,045 the following year.

The Halving Cycle Pattern:

• Five Stages:

  1. Significant rally before the halving.

  2. Brief correction.

  3. Period of consolidation.

  4. Major bull run.

  5. Steep correction.

• All-Time High (ATH) Timing:

  • Typically occurs ~18 months post-halving.

Expectations for the Upcoming 2024 Halving:

• Market Speculation:

  • Anticipation of a new ATH, potentially reaching $150,000 in 2025.

  • Narrative suggests a higher price than the previous bull run.

• Supply-Demand Dynamics:

  • A new ATH is plausible post-2024 halving.

  • Significant price surge contingent on robust demand alongside reduced BTC supply.

The halving is a pivotal event in Bitcoin's lifecycle, historically triggering a series of market reactions. As the countdown to the next halving continues, traders and investors are keenly observing these patterns and preparing for potential market shifts.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.