“T is for Tariffs!”

Hi there! Recently, I had the opportunity to give a talk to a group of manager and team leads. I started with the question: “What are you struggling with?” And most of them said the same thing in their own way. They didn’t have a system. None.

Some were still trying to make decisions based on training videos they watched five years ago. Others were winging it entirely. I get it. When you are busy putting out fires all day, building a system can feel like a luxury. But here is the truth. If you are trying to lead without a system, you are not leading. You are reacting! You are surviving! That leads to burn out!

I’ve always said this. If you are running a business, leading a team, managing projects, or even trying to get your nutrition right at the gym, you need a system. Not a perfect one. Not someone else’s. One that works for you. One that makes sense for your lifestyle and how you operate. When I led large teams, that’s what I did. I gave them a starting point; a baseline. And I’d say, “Make it your own.” Because one size fits all might work for baseball caps. Not leadership.

Once you have a system, you have to trust it. I’ve seen too many people give something a shot for a day, maybe a week, then toss it out because it didn’t work instantly. That’s not how this goes. You build it, you tweak it, you adjust as life changes and new people come and go. That’s the beauty of a real system; it’s designed to adapt, not crumble.

Take this as a reminder. Build something that fits you. Focus on the vision. Know your story. Plan for the rough patches. A good system gives you structure and helps you move with intention.

The chaos is not going anywhere. But your system? That is what lets you walk into the chaos with confidence. 

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last Week’s Market Overview (March 16 - March 22, 2025)

Markets tiptoed through uncertainty last week, but by last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 managed to snap a four-week losing streak. All the major indexes closed the week in the green. The Dow Jones added 1.20%, and the S&P 500 edged up 0.51%%, the Nasdaq posted 0.17% gain.

Investors were torn between dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and rising concerns about trade policy and corporate profitability. A midweek rally, sparked by optimism after the Fed’s rate announcement, faded by Friday as fresh earnings warnings revived fears about the economic outlook. Despite the whiplash, international equities ended mostly higher, while gold surged to new records and bond yields slipped.

U.S. Markets Recap

Equities:

Markets got a midweek boost from the Fed’s March policy meeting, but Friday’s slump erased much of those gains. Growth stocks continued to struggle, with value names and small caps outperforming.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell attempted to calm markets, downplaying long-term inflation concerns from tariffs and signaling a more gradual approach to tightening. However, optimism faded after FedEx slashed its earnings forecast and Nike flagged tariff-related margin pressure.

Fixed Income:

Bond markets rallied as the Fed slowed the pace of quantitative tightening (QT). The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points, while the 10-year yield dropped by 9 basis points. The Fed reduced its monthly runoff cap from $25 billion to just $5 billion—a move meant to preserve short-term market stability. However, this pause is likely temporary, with QT expected to resume after debt ceiling negotiations conclude.

Commodities:

• Gold broke through $3,000/oz, marking new all-time highs. Weak growth projections and geopolitical tension, especially from the abrupt end of the Gaza ceasefire, fueled safe-haven buying.

• Crude Oil moved higher, buoyed by expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran-linked oil flows and tighter supply expectations from OPEC+.

• The Bloomberg Commodities Index rose modestly after retreating from Thursday’s highs.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, helped by:

• Hawkish undertones from Fed officials

• Softness in the euro as traders took profits

• A flat performance from the yen

The Fed’s more cautious stance on rate cuts and mixed economic data gave the greenback an edge over global peers.

U.S. Economic Recap (March 16 - March 22, 2025)

• Consumer Confidence Craters

  The Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged to 92.9 in March, marking a fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest level since early 2021. Expectations for the next six months dropped to 65.2, a 12-year low, highlighting recession-level sentiment.

• Fed’s Forecasts Shift

  • The Fed left rates unchanged but trimmed its growth outlook for 2025 to 1.7%, down from 2.1%. Unemployment is now expected to tick up to 4.4%, and core inflation is seen lingering at 2.8%. The tone was more cautious, suggesting rate cuts could arrive this summer if inflation cools as expected.

Global Markets Recap (March 16 - March 22, 2025)

Europe:

European stocks ended the week slightly higher, but gains were limited by ongoing concerns over trade and geopolitical tensions. The Bank of England held rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank surprised markets by cutting rates again by 25 basis points.

Asia:

Asian markets were mixed:

• Hong Kong sold off sharply as AI hype cooled and Tencent underwhelmed on investment plans.

• Mainland China saw losses after new stimulus efforts, including wage boosts and consumer finance, failed to spark momentum.

• Japan and South Korea edged higher, supported by chipmakers and dovish signals from the Bank of Japan.

Crypto Recap (March 16 - March 22, 2025)

• Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near all-time highs but pulled back from $87.3K to $84.5K after the Fed’s QT slowdown announcement. A whale’s $9.4M short close on Hyperliquid highlighted the choppy sentiment.

• Donald Trump doubled down on his “Bitcoin superpower” vision and advocated for stablecoin laws, but price reaction remained muted.

• Ripple vs. SEC ends after over 4 years. XRP surged 8% after CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed the conclusion of their legal battle.

• Australia rolled out a comprehensive digital asset framework, aiming to balance innovation with regulation and become a global crypto leader.

• BlackRock’s BUIDL, Superstate, and Centrifuge won a combined $1 billion allocation from Spark to boost tokenized U.S. Treasuries, highlighting growing demand for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

• Top crypto gainer last week: BONK and HYPE

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Kraken to acquire US retail futures platform NinjaTrader in largest ever crypto and tradfi deal.

• Solana Futures ETFs went live.

• VanEck looks to get SEC's greenlight for first AVAX ETF.

• Jurassic World Partners with the Sandbox to enter metaverse.

• Stripe lets you pay with crypto at over three million locations and online, using Polygon PoS.

It’s another packed week in the markets!

Key U.S. Economic Releases & Results:

• Services PMI and Composite PMI both beat expectations, signaling economic momentum.

• Consumer Confidence plunged to levels last seen in 2008–2012, reinforcing stagflation fears.

• New Home Sales modestly rose but remained below expectations.

• Manufacturing PMI fell below 50, signaling a slowdown.

Upcoming U.S. Economic Events: 

• Durable Goods Orders (Wed)

• Q4 GDP (Thurs)

• Jobless Claims (Thurs)

• Pending Home Sales (Thurs)

• Core PCE Inflation (Fri)

• Consumer Sentiment (Fri)

Fed speakers this week:

So far:

• Bostic (Mon): Cut 2025 rate cut expectations from two to one.

• Kugler (Tues): Warned inflation progress has stalled.

• Williams (Tues): Cited “heightened uncertainty” for households and firms.

• Kashkari (Wed 10:00 AM): Interest rates ought to be reduced further in the next year or two.

• Musalem (Wed 1:10 PM): Be patient with current policy as Fed’s analyze inflation data.

Still to come:

• Barkin (Thurs 4:30 PM)

• Barr (Fri 12:15 PM)

• Bostic (Fri 3:45 PM)

Expect markets to hang on every word for clues about a possible June rate cut.

Earnings: 

Key Earnings Releases to watch this week are outlined in red in the chart below.

Global Economic Events This Week:

Trading Tip:

“Tuesdays have been historically bullish in April!”

Week 3/16/25 - 3/22/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies

This week, I am taking a closer look at a more comprehensive market intelligence tool called Trading Terminal. If you’re actively managing your own portfolio or simply seeking to understand the markets to find profitable trading ideas, this is a platform worth adding to your toolkit.

Market Snapshot: Immediate Context, No Guesswork

At the top of the homepage, Trading Terminal displays key benchmarks:

S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow Jones, and Bitcoin. These mini-charts provide a visual representation of intraday movement, allowing users to quickly assess market sentiment (bullish or bearish/ green or red) and directional bias (is the market trending up, down, or sideways).

For beginner investors, this feature helps frame the broader economic environment. For experienced traders, it’s a quick read on potential volatility and correlation setups.

Pre-Market Volume: Identifying Where Money is Flowing

The Biggest Volume Pre-Market section highlights stocks experiencing unusual volume before opening bell. This is a data-driven starting point for identifying liquidity, sentiment shifts, and potential trade candidates.

• For short-term traders: this is a volatility scanner.

• For swing traders and investors: it signals where institutional attention might be building.

  

Performance Analysis: Market Normalization and Relative Strength

The Normalized Market Performance chart compares major indices over multiple timeframes, from one day to five years. It tracks ETFs like SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq-100), DIA (Dow), and IWM (Russell 2000).

This feature supports relative strength analysis, helping investors and portfolio managers understand which segments of the market are outperforming or lagging over time.

Sector Rotation in Real-Time: This is where the Action is

Green bars and red bars. Clean and simple. But don’t overlook it.

The Sector Performance panel breaks down sector movements by timeframe (day, week, month, year-to-date). It highlights where institutional money is rotating. This information is important for ETF investors, options traders, and anyone employing top-down analysis.

In this example, Communication Services Sector is up, while Industrials are under pressure.

Heatmap: Market Breadth at a Glance

Trading Terminal’s heatmap provides a colour-coded view of the equity market, broken down by sector and company. This is a visual cheat sheet of the entire market. Green means buyers. Red means sellers.

Are all the green blocks in tech? Are financials dark red across the board? This is how you start connecting money flow with market narratives.

This is especially valuable for intraday traders, as it shows immediate pockets of strength and weakness.

Global Market Moves Matter

Positioned on the lower left, the macro section presents real-time data on U.S. Treasury yields (TNX), volatility indices (VIX, VXN, SKEW), and key global indices (e.g., Nikkei, FTSE).

This macro context is often overlooked but is vital for managing risk exposure, especially during periods of elevated uncertainty or global rate shifts. When bond yields move, the stock market reacts.

Market Cap Module: Tracking the Market’s Largest Drivers

The Market Cap module lists the top U.S. companies by valuation (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, and Google) along with their current prices, daily percentage change, and short-term price trend. I find the 30-day chart preview next to each company very helpful.

This module is particularly useful for passive investors and index ETF holders who want to understand how movements in mega-cap stocks are affecting their broader portfolios.

Built-In Tool Suite: Designed for Independent Traders

The sidebar includes a robust suite of integrated tools:

• Calendar: Tracks upcoming earnings, economic reports, IPOs, and dividends.

• Fundamental Dashboard: Offers stock-level data on valuation, financials, and ratios.

• Scanner: Allows users to build and filter watchlists based on technical and fundamental criteria.

• Simulator & Replay: Ideal for backtesting strategies and building confidence without financial risk.

• Academy & Webinars: Ongoing education and live market walkthroughs to improve market literacy and execution.

Trading Terminal is built to sharpen your thinking. It is a great tool for monitoring macroeconomic data, identifying high-volume movers, or analyzing sector momentum, this platform centralizes decision-making tools in one intuitive interface.

For new investors, it offers a structured way to understand the market beyond price alone. For experienced traders, it reduces the noise and brings together market data, tools, and context in one place.

If you haven’t explored it yet, I recommend spending time on the homepage. Use it daily. Observe patterns. Take notes. Let it become your pre-market routine. The more you engage with real data, the stronger your instincts become. You can take a screenshot and upload to ChatGPT prompting the AI to give you a summary of the markets based on the attached image.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.