"Which Way Do We Go?"

Hi There! During a recent call with my mum, who resides in Grenada, she informed me that, over the weekend, she prepared one of my all-time favourite dishes, which also happens to be Grenada's National dish - Oil Down. This hearty one-pot meal is comprised of a savory blend of breadfruit (the base), along with green bananas, meat (usually salted meat, salted fish, and chicken), saffron, callaloo, okra, herbs, spices, dumplings, and more all simmered to perfection in freshly-made coconut milk. Trust me when I say, every morsel of Oil Down is a feast for the senses, a celebration of Grenadian culture and cuisine that will leave you craving for more.

Alright, let's dig in!

Last week, Wall Street was ablaze with a volatile mix of positive and negative news that set the stage for an exciting trading week. Although the U.S. indexes rallied for most of the week, there was a splash of red as some sectors experienced dips. The week started with some promising news, as both the CPI and PPI data came in lower than expected. Adding to the positive sentiment were higher-than-forecasted earnings from major players such as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi, and BlackRock followed suit by beating their quarterly profit expectations.

However, these positive developments were tempered by lower-than-expected Retail Sales data, which cast a shadow over the markets. Nonetheless, investors remain cautiously optimistic that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes, and with a consolidated market, exercise caution heading into the new week.

Exciting news for oil investors: last week the commodity finally broke above the key level at $82.23, triggering a nice rally. This marked the fourth consecutive week of gains. This surge in momentum came after OPEC+ announced plans to decrease outputs further. The next key level to watch is $83.04. If the price closes above this level, expect the oil bulls to have their way.

Meanwhile in Crypto:

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $30,000, potentially rising to $34,500. Ethereum's "Shanghai" upgrade boosted the price to $2,100, while altcoins (ALTs) like Injective (INJ) and Arbitrum (ARB) surged.

Other key highlights from last week:

• Oil secured a fourth straight week of gains

• Fed Chair Powell met PBoC Governor Yi Gang

• Canon USA is set to launch a new photography NFT marketplace

• Bitcoin Ordinal NFTs surpassed 1 Million inscriptions

• Regen Network launched a bridge to Polygon with Toucan Protocol

Here's what to expect in the week ahead:

The following U.S. economic reports will be the center of focus: The Fed Beige Book Release, Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index, and the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

Fed policymakers that are scheduled to speak during the week include New York Fed President Williams and Governors Bowman, Waller, and Cook. All four policymakers are said to be "Hawkish" (to learn more about Hawkish versus Dovish, read Issue #18).

The 2023 first-quarter (Q1) earnings are starting to roll in. Most notable earnings include Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), American Express (NYSE: AXP), AT&T (NYSE: T), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).

The upcoming high-impact global news includes China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales, the UK Unemployment Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), PMIs, and Retail Sales, the German ZEW Survey, European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting Minutes, ECB President Lagarde Speech, and Euro Area PMIs.

Next week's anticipated bias (not financial or investment advice):

• Monday (04/17/23) - Historically, day before Tax Deadline is volatile

• Tuesday (04/18/23) - Tax Day - Look to buy the dips

• Wednesday (04/19/23) - Bullish

• Thursday (04/20/23) - Expect the unexpected - Take Profits

• Friday (04/21/23) - Expect choppiness in the markets

Trading Tip: Trade with the institutions!

Week 04/09/23 - 04/15/23 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies

The third publication of the 2023 Beige Book will be released on Wednesday April 19th.

So what is it?

The Beige Book, officially known as "The Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District," is an economic indicator that is released eight times a year, two weeks before each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting. This report is used as a tool by the FOMC to help make their decisions on interest rates. While its impact on the market may be lower than that of the Green and Blue Books, which are non-public releases, the Beige Book is still a valuable resource for investors seeking insights into the current economic climate.

A more hawkish than expected report is good for the dollar. A more dovish than expected report is good for energy prices.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information provided in this report does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your own research.