“Bouncing Low!”

Hi there! Last week nearly had me in a frenzy.

I sat down to do my quarterly check-in, all hopeful at first. However, the deeper I looked, the more I felt that tightening in my chest. My plans weren’t lining up and my brain went haywire. My whole focus locked in on what didn’t go right. Every little molehill felt like Mount Saint Catherine, and I was catching all the feels. I was right on the edge of a full-blown panic, until that soft voice of reason whispered to me: “Girl…..When in doubt, zoom out.”

I did just that. I stepped away, took a deep breath (several actually), and let my mind travelled. I looked back at how far I’ve come since venturing out on my own. Then I looked ahead to the woman I’m becoming and the vision I set out for myself. Boom! Just like that, my mind shifted. Those “big problems” shrank. What felt like failure was really just feedback.

Zooming out reminded me why I even started. It cooled my anxiety and brought me back to the truth: I’m still rising. Maybe not in every single area, but overall? I’m moving in the right direction. I’m not behind. I’m building.

This perspective brought a wave of gratitude too. Yes, I might’ve fumbled here and there, but I never once compromised the things that matter most to me. That’s a win! So, I gave myself some grace, picked up the gems from the missteps, and incorporated them into my goals for this fresh new quarter.

All this to say, if you ever find yourself feeling off track or drowning in the minutiae, try zooming out. Walk away. Breathe. Look again, with softer eyes. You might find you’re doing way better than you think.

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last Week’s Market Overview (March 30 - April 5, 2025)

Last week was dominated by tariffs, tension, and a torrential sell-off.

Markets reeled after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff declaration, which slapped steep new levies on imports from China, Japan, and the EU. Global investors reacted with alarm, triggering a steep equity decline, a rally in bonds, and fresh questions about economic growth and inflation. The Nasdaq officially entered bear market territory, the S&P 500 posted its worst week since 2020, and major exporters like Boeing and Caterpillar took a nosedive. Meanwhile, Treasury yields plunged and commodities sank under the weight of souring global demand.

There were few safe havens, but a glimmer of optimism appeared for companies with exposure to Vietnam, which rallied after news of productive U.S.-Vietnam trade talks. Still, the week underscored a hard truth: geopolitics are back in the driver's seat.

U.S. Markets Recap

Equities:

The first quarter of 2025 closed with broad-based losses. The S&P 500 fell 4.3%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 9%. Growth stocks led the slide, plunging 10%, while value stocks bucked the trend with a modest 2% gain.

Markets entered the week hopeful, stringing together modest gains ahead of last Wednesday’s tariff announcement. Optimism turned quickly to panic. Trump’s surprise move to implement a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, escalating up to 34% on Chinese goods, sparked fears of slower economic growth and corporate margin pressure. Stocks plunged last Thursday and Friday, brushing off even strong jobs data. China’s retaliatory 34% tariff only deepened the rout.

Mega-cap tech, aerospace, and industrials were hit the hardest. However, apparel and home goods retailers tied to Vietnam, like Nike, Wayfair, and Lululemon, offered a rare pocket of strength.

Fixed Income:

Bond markets surged as investors ran for safety. Yields on both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes dropped 31 basis points, with the 10-year closing back below 4%. This sharp move reflects increased bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Markets now priced in four cuts, with a 50/50 chance of a fifth.

Credit spreads widened meaningfully:

• Investment-grade spreads: +0.25% from February lows

• High-yield spreads: +1.31%

This divergence is a strong reminder of Treasuries' role as portfolio stabilizers in volatile times.

Commodities:

• Oil: WTI crude plunged 11%, the worst weekly drop in months. Rising inventories, softening demand, and tariff fears drove the slide.

• Gold: After early-week gains, gold ended the week flat as investors sold positions to cover losses elsewhere.

• Broad Commodities Index: Finished lower, erasing earlier strength.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar slipped slightly last week as falling bond yields narrowed rate differentials with other major economies. While strong jobs data on Friday helped cap losses, the greenback still faces pressure from the market’s shifting rate expectations.

U.S. Economic Recap (March 30 - April 5, 2025)

Jobs Market Holds Firm For Now

March payrolls grew by 228,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.15%. Healthcare added 54,000 jobs, reflecting continued strength in sectors less impacted by trade policy. However, retail gains were inflated by post-strike rebounds and aren't expected to continue.

Wage growth rose 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing inflation and supporting consumer spending for now.

Risks are rising:

• Stagflation fears have returned. ISM manufacturing data showed rising input prices alongside falling orders and shrinking employment.

• Recession odds: JP Morgan now sees a 60% chance of recession, up from 40% last week.

Powell’s Dilemma:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the shock from tariffs, warning that inflation may climb and growth may slow more than previously expected. In a notable shift, he dialed back talk of imminent rate cuts, citing uncertainty over how the new trade regime will ripple through the economy.

Global Markets Recap (March 30 - April 5, 2025)

Europe:

European stocks tumbled alongside Wall Street. Although inflation data came in cooler, the broader picture is worsening. EU growth forecasts have been slashed, and fears of retaliatory tariffs loom large. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates soon, with markets pricing a 90% chance of a move next week.

Key headlines:

• U.K. fiscal leaders warned that U.S. tariffs could erase their spending cushion.

• French politics heated up as Marine Le Pen faced renewed legal scrutiny.

Asia:

Asian markets posted their worst weekly performance since April 2024. China’s retaliation hit sentiment hard, despite its $69B capital boost to state-owned banks. Japan’s banks were crushed amid fading rate hike hopes, and exporters across Korea, India, and Australia struggled. Taiwan avoided some pain thanks to holiday closures but still ended lower.

Crypto Recap (March 30 - April 5, 2025)

While traditional markets bled red, Bitcoin managed to eke out a +1.45% gain for last week. Still, Q1 was brutal across the board:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Q1 -11.82%

• Ethereum (ETH): Q1 -45.41% (four straight monthly declines)

• ETH gas fees: At record lows, reflecting reduced network activity.

Circle Eyes Wall Street Again

Circle, the issuer behind stablecoin USDC, has filed for an IPO. This is its second attempt after a failed SPAC deal in 2022. The Trump administration’s supportive crypto stance may provide tailwinds. With $60B in USDC circulation and $156M in net income last year, Circle aims to raise $750M from the offering.

Top crypto gainer last week: Pendle (PENDLE) and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• Coinbase files for XRP Futures trading.

• Tether Purchases $735 Million in Bitcoin in Q1.

• ‘Off the Grid' game adds Bored Ape avatars after GUN token launch.

• AMD Announces “Advancing AI 2025”.

Markets are entering a pivotal stretch this week!

Key Developments so Far:

• FOMC Member Kugler (Monday): Warned tariffs could fuel short-term inflation. Noted rising consumer caution.

• FOMC Member Daly (Tuesday): Urged patience, highlighting solid growth but concern over inflation risks.

Upcoming U.S. Economic Releases: 

• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

• Thursday: CPI (Inflation) & Jobless Claims

• Friday: PPI (Producer Inflation) & Consumer Sentiment

Fed speakers this week:

• Barkin (Wed. 11:00 AM)

• Logan (Thurs. 9:30 AM)

• Bowman (Thurs. 10:00 AM)

• Goolsbee & Harker (Thurs. 12:00 PM)

• Musalem (Fri. 10:00 AM)

• Williams (Fri. 11:00 AM)

Earnings: 

Earnings season for 2025 kicks off with major financials and consumer names:

• Monday: Levi Strauss (LEVI)

• Tuesday: Walgreens (WBA), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

• Wednesday: Delta Airlines (DAL)

• Later This Week:

  • BlackRock (BLK)

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

  • Morgan Stanley (MS)

  • Wells Fargo (WFC)

With the current geopolitical climate, positive earnings may be ignored if trade tensions escalate. The key earnings releases to watch this week are outlined in red in the chart below.

Global Economic Events This Week:

Trading Tip:
“A volume spike during consolidation (chop) often signals a coming trend change!”

Week 3/30/25 - 4/05/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies - Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

If you've ever wondered whether it's a good time to buy, sell, or accumulate Bitcoin, without relying on noisy opinions or hype, here’s a simple visual tool worth adding to your toolkit:

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

Yes, it's literally a rainbow.

Don't let the colours fool you, though. Behind this friendly visual lies a powerful model built on historical data and market psychology.

This chart does three important things:

• Tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price movement using a logarithmic growth curve

• Visually maps out market sentiment using colour bands

• Gives you a framework for understanding where we are in the current Bitcoin cycle, whether it’s time to accumulate, hold, or start trimming positions

It’s also an excellent way to keep your eye on the Bitcoin Halving cycle (see Issue #64 for an explanation on that).

What Is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Indicator?

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool that overlays colour bands on a logarithmic price curve. Think of it as a sentiment heat map for Bitcoin that help you understand when Bitcoin is overheated or undervalued at a glance.

Here’s how the chart works:

• Each colour band represents a different market sentiment stage, ranging from deep undervaluation to euphoric overvaluation

• The colours correspond to general strategic themes like:

  • “Basically a Fire Sale” (dark blue) = historically undervalued

  • “HODL!” (green) = mid-cycle accumulation

  • “FOMO intensifies” (orange) = momentum and hype build-up

  • “Maximum Bubble Territory” (red) = potential market top

Just to be clear, this tool isn’t about daily trading. It’s purpose is to help you understand Bitcoin’s macro cycles.

A quick reminder: Like all charts and indicators, the Rainbow Chart is not investment advice. It’s a visual guide based on past performance and trends. No model can predict the future with certainty.

That said, Bitcoin’s price has historically remained within these bands, giving the Rainbow Chart real credibility as an educational framework.

How to Interpret the Rainbow Chart

Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset class. That means two things:

1. It’s highly volatile

2. It goes through dramatic market cycles

The Rainbow Chart helps visualize those cycles. Prices move upward over time due to adoption and network growth. However, within that upward movement, Bitcoin experiences:

• Parabolic uptrends during bull markets

• Sharp pullbacks during bear markets

By showing you where the current price sits within these coloured bands, the chart gives you a strategic lens.

General Rule of Thumb:

• Upper (warmer) colours = potential overheated market

  • Historically good zones for long-term investors to consider taking profit

• Lower (cooler) colours = accumulation zones

  • Historically attractive entry points for long-term holders

Again, this isn't a crystal ball. It’s a compass.

Markets are noisy. Twitter is emotional. The media is constantly instilling fear. The Rainbow Chart offers something different: a simple, colour-coded view of Bitcoin’s long-term journey.

Sometimes that is all you need to cut through the chaos.

If you're serious about building a conviction-based approach to Bitcoin, especially through multiple market cycles, this is a chart worth checking weekly, not daily.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.