“Oops...He Did it Again!”

Hi there! Yesterday I took my car in. That check engine light had been glaring at me for two whole weeks. Hahaha… don’t judge. Like many of us, I brushed the warning off. I figured it was just the gas cap. Or, maybe some bad gas from that one gas station I never go to (not gonna name names, but we all have one). I caught myself doing process of elimination. I drove it down to fumes, filled up at my regular spot, hoping the light would vanish. No luck. Eventually I got the it scanned: “Cooling System Performance.” Now that ain’t something to play with. I had flashbacks of being stuck on the highway once already. I wasn’t about to let that happen again.

As I was waiting at the dealership, it hit me: how often do we treat life the same way? Our bodies, our minds, our spirits… they throw up warning lights too. I vividly remember that internal flicker I experienced during powerlifting trainings: a tightness in my back. “Ah, it’s nothing,” I’d say… until I ended up nursing a full-blown back injury. Or that time a banana tried to send me to the other side, and I had to be rushed to the ER. Yes, banana. Me. A whole Grenadian. Allergic. This incident finally pushed me to get allergy tests.

And then there’s the emotional “check engine” light: Staying too long in a relationship, a job, or a season that expired long before I was willing to admit it. I knew when something wasn’t right. Yet I kept pushing, hopeful the light would just go off on its own.

Lemme tell you… those warnings, as annoying as they are, are blessings in disguise. They whisper before they scream. Do not ignore the signs. Pull over. Run the scan. Do the maintenance. You don’t need to break down on the side of life to realize something needed fixing.

Let this be a reminder to check in with yourself. What lights been on in your life lately? 

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last Week’s Market Overview (April 6 - April 12, 2025)

Last week was the comeback that Wall Street needed.

After weeks of tariff turmoil and inflation anxiety, stocks snapped back in their strongest week since 2023. This caused a rally midweek after President Trump delayed new tariffs for most U.S. trade partners. While volatility remained high and uncertainty still lingers, markets found reasons to celebrate, at least temporarily.

All three major U.S. Indexes rose. Gold hit new record highs, bonds got battered, and oil continued to wobble. Despite wild daily swings, investors breathed a sigh of relief as economic data pointed to cooling inflation, even as Fed officials made clear that their fight isn’t over yet.

U.S. Markets Recap

Equities:

Stocks rode a roller coaster but ended on a high. The Nasdaq, long weighed down by tech weakness, led the way with a 7.29% weekly surge, marking its best week since 2022. The S&P 500 and Dow weren’t far behind, gaining 5.95% and 4.95%, respectively.

Markets opened the week with confusion, soaring on reports of a tariff pause before reversing sharply once the White House denied it. By last Wednesday, the 90-day delay was official (China excluded), sending stocks skyrocketing in the biggest one-day gain since 2008. Though Thursday’s pullback gave traders whiplash, Friday’s bounce helped seal the best week in over a year.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stood out as a notable winner amid the chaos, climbing alongside Bitcoin as investors looked for alternative safe havens.

On the earnings front, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all beat estimates. But leadership struck a cautious tone, with many companies expected to pull or revise 2025 guidance due to tariff headwinds.

Fixed Income:

It was a rough week for bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell as yields surged across the curve:

• 2-year yield: +26 basis points

• 10-year yield: +45 basis points

Last week’s volatility was amplified by a fake news tweet about a tariff pause, which was quickly debunked, sending yields flying. A poor 3-year auction last Monday stoked fears of foreign buyer fatigue, but strong demand at Wednesday’s and Thursday’s auctions calmed some nerves.

Despite recent dislocations, many analysts expect the Treasury market to reassert its haven status if economic data deteriorates and Fed cuts loom larger.

Commodities:

• Gold: Soared to record highs as safe-haven demand rose amid trade tension and a weaker dollar.

• Oil (WTI): Initially rallied on inventory draws and tariff delay, but ended lower as global demand concerns persisted.

• Broad Commodities Index: Recovered from a 3% midweek loss to close in positive territory, buoyed by late-week strength in metals and agriculture.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar slid across the board last week as investors questioned its safe-haven status amidst rising trade risks.

• Australian Dollar: +3.94%

• New Zealand Dollar: +3.73%

• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): -3.62%

• Euro: +2.49% to a 7-month high at $1.119

Despite risk-off sentiment early last week, the dollar weakened due to shifting rate expectations and global central bank easing. The Fed’s cautious tone and slowing inflation gave traders further reason to rotate out of the dollar.

U.S. Economic Recap (April 6 - April 12, 2025)

Fed Minutes + Tariff Jitters

The March FOMC Minutes revealed huge concerns over tariff impacts, referenced 18 times in the document. Fed officials are especially wary of how prolonged trade battles could sour consumer and business sentiment, both of which are already sliding.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8, its second-lowest level on record. Small businesses also reported hesitancy in borrowing and investing, while mid-to-large firms still had access to capital.

Inflation Data Offered Relief

• CPI (Consumer Price Index):

  • Monthly: -0.1% (first drop in nearly five years)

  • Core CPI: +0.1% (softest pace since mid-2023)

  • Annual CPI: 2.4%

  • Core annual: 2.8%

• PPI (Producer Price Index):

  • Monthly: -0.4% (largest drop since Oct 2023)

  • Core PPI: -0.1%

  • Food: -2.1% | Energy: -4%

  • Goods ex-food/energy: +0.3% (strongest back-to-back gain in 2 years)

These numbers signal a temporary cooling in inflation pressures. Fed speakers made clear that they’re not ready to pivot quickly.

Global Markets Recap (April 6 - April 12, 2025)

Europe:

European equities struggled to hold gains, ending the week slightly lower. While the EU delayed counter-tariffs, hopes for an ECB rate cut still dominated sentiment. Markets are now pricing two ECB cuts in 2025.

The U.K. outperformed, thanks to surprise GDP growth (+0.5% for February vs. 0.1% forecast).

Asia:

Asian markets logged a third straight week of losses. Trade drama took center stage:

• China: Hit by escalating U.S. tariffs (up to 145%) and responded with 125% levies on Friday

• Taiwan: Struggled under continued semiconductor sector weakness

• South Korea: Tech-led declines

• Japan: Held up better, buoyed by midweek strength and a rising yen

Crypto Recap (April 6 - April 12, 2025)

Crypto had a turbulent week, briefly rallying on Trump’s tariff delay, then falling back as volatility returned.

• Bitcoin: Spiked to $82,500, then dropped 0.6% for the week

• Ethereum: Up 12% midweek, but fell 13.7% overall

• Solana: Brief rally, but retraced gains

• Bitcoin ETF outflows: $708 million vs. $165 million prior week

SEC Shake-Up

The SEC announced a review of crypto-related guidance, aiming to modernize rules and ease pressure on digital assets. This follows a broader deregulation push under Executive Order 14192.

Token Collapse: Mantra ($OM)

On April 13, the OM token crashed over 90%, wiping out $6 billion in market cap.

• Fell from $6.30 to below $0.50

• Rumors of a “rug pull” intensified

• Apparent cause - forced liquidation during a leverage trade where $OM was used as collateral

• Team insists they’re not abandoning the project

Top crypto gainer last week: Onyx (XCN), JasyCoin (JASMY), and Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Here are other key highlights from last week:

• President Trump signed resolution erasing IRS Crypto rule targeting DeFi.

• Ripple buying crypto-friendly prime brokerage Hidden Road for $1.25 Billion.

• Solana developers launched new token extensions to improve on-chain privacy.

• NFT marketplace Magic Eden bought trading app Slingshot.

Prepare for more volatility and opportunity this week!

U.S. Economic Releases: 

• Tues: NY Fed Manufacturing Index (-8.1 reading)

• Wed: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

• Thurs: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits

• Fri: Good Friday (Stock Market closed)

Fed speakers this week:

• Monday: Barkin, Waller, Bostic

• Tuesday: Cook (no policy comments)

• Wednesday: Hammack, Powell (1:30 PM), Schmid

• Thursday: Barr

• Friday: Daly

Earnings: 

The key earnings releases to watch this week are outlined in red in the chart below.

Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:

Trading Tip:
“Historically, April has shown strength after tax deadline!”

Week 4/06/25 - 4/12/25 Recap

Special Tools and Strategies

The Hash Ribbon Indicator – Tracking Miner Capitulation for Long-Term Bitcoin Buys

Last week, in Issue #127, I introduced you to the colourful Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a simple yet effective visual model that helps you track Bitcoin price sentiment and accumulation zones. It's very helpful for seeing the bigger picture and aligning with long-term buying and selling patterns.

This week, I’m going to take it up a notch, especially for those of you who enjoy the technical side of the markets. I want to introduce another powerful, but often overlooked, tool that has stood the test of time: the Hash Ribbon Indicator for Bitcoin.

This is an “oldie but goodie” that combines on-chain miner activity with long-term buy zone identification.

What is the Hash Ribbon Indicator?

The Hash Ribbon is a Bitcoin chart indicator designed to detect periods when Bitcoin miners are in distress, usually after huge price pullbacks or prolonged bear markets. These periods of stress are often followed by miner capitulation, meaning they temporarily shut down their mining rigs because it’s no longer profitable to mine.

Why does this matter? Because miner capitulation has historically aligned with macro bottoms in Bitcoin price. Those are correction levels where long-term investors often step in to “buy the dip.”

The indicator was popularized by Charles Edwards in his article Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms, where he stated:

This tool doesn’t attempt to time the exact bottom. Instead, it offers a signal that the worst of the selling pressure may be behind us, particularly when the hash rate starts to recover.

How Is the Hash Ribbon Chart Calculated?

The chart relies on a simple comparison of Bitcoin’s hash rate over time using two moving averages:

• 30-day moving average (30DMA)

• 60-day moving average (60DMA)

When the 30DMA drops below the 60DMA, it signals a decline in miner health; this is a red flag for capitulation.

When the 30DMA crosses back above the 60DMA, that’s the key signal that the capitulation period may be ending and that network health is recovering.

Since Bitcoin’s hash rate is updated daily, this indicator offers real-time insight into the operational strength of miners, much faster than waiting for Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustments, which happen every two weeks.

How to Interpret the Hash Ribbon Chart

The chart above shows Bitcoin's price at the top, and the Hash Ribbon indicator at the bottom, with two key lines:

• Green line = 30-DMA of Bitcoin’s hash rate (shorter-term miner activity)

• Grey line = 60-DMA of Bitcoin’s hash rate (longer-term miner health)

The Hash Ribbon works like a "spring coil". It compresses under pressure during miner stress and uncoils as strength returns to the network.

Here’s how to read the signals in the current chart:

1. The Start of Capitulation – Gray Circle

This is when the 30-day hash rate drops below the 60-day, signaling miner capitulation has begun. Miners are under pressure, often due to falling prices, and some may be forced to shut down their rigs. This is typically a risk-off zone, but also where bottoms may begin to form.

2. The End of Capitulation – Green Circle

Once the 30-day hash rate crosses back above the 60-day, miner stress begins to ease. This crossover marks the end of miner capitulation. Though sentiment may still be weak, the network is beginning to recover.

3. Recovery Momentum – Increasing Green to Blue

As the “spring” gets greener, then bluer, it shows the hash rate is rising again, meaning miners are returning to the network. The bluer the signal, the more confident the recovery.

4. First Blue Circle = Momentum Buy Signal

The first blue circle after recovery indicates a momentum shift. This is first time we see hash rate strength coinciding with price stability or growth. Historically, this has been a low-risk, high-reward buy zone for long-term investors.

Why Traders and Long-Term Investors Should Watch Hash Ribbons

The Hash Ribbon Indicator is particularly useful for:

• Avoiding panic during big market corrections

• Identifying undervalued entry points when fear dominates the market

• Confirming when major selling pressure from miners is starting to subside

• Observing when conditions improve, both technically and operationally, for Bitcoin.

This chart is one of the few long-term indicators that ties together price, network health, and mining activity that gives investors a multidimensional lens on the market.

Smart Bitcoin investors track more than Bitcoin price.

They track the health of the entire system, including miners, hash rate, difficulty, and sentiment.

The Hash Ribbon Indicator offers a strategic signal for when Bitcoin is undergoing internal recovery, even before the price reflects it.

Periods like these (after stress, during early recovery) have historically marked some of the best accumulation zones for investors with a long-term outlook.

So the question becomes: Are you watching for miner capitulation? Or are you waiting for news to catch up?

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.