"Santa Claus is Comin' to Town!"

Issue #56

Hi There! We bid farewell to a legend in the markets, Charlie Munger, who passed away at the age of 99 on Tuesday November 28, 2023. As an investing genius and the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, he was not just an industry stalwart but also a dear friend to Warren Buffet. Charlie Munger holds a special place in my heart as one of my favourite gurus in the investing space. I vividly recall back in 2013, when I first ventured into the stock market world, staying up into the early hours absorbed in videos of him discussing his investing strategies. The Annual Berkshire shareholder's meetings, where he and Warren Buffet shared their insights, became a source of both wisdom and entertainment. Munger's emphasis on intelligent investing, value investing, and the importance of investing in companies with a "moat" left an indelible mark on me. His simple formula for success - spend less than you earn, invest shrewdly, avoid toxicity, keep learning, and practice deferred gratification—continues to guide my approach to researching every project I invest in. Charlie Munger's influence will remain a lasting contribution to the financial world. RIP sir!

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last week, the stock market experienced a continued rally despite a shortened trading week. Investors seemed to overlook a cautious to bleak retail outlook, at least for the time being. However, there's a nuanced perspective on this optimism. The market rally's breadth remained confined to specific stocks, primarily in the technology sector, indicating a selective surge rather than a widespread market upswing. Interestingly, attention is also on the yield of the 10-year Treasury note; if it continues to decline, investors might find reasons to allocate their capital in the stock market. 

Here are other key highlights from last week:

  • Oil slipped 1% on concerns over delayed OPEC+ meeting

  • Bearish news has had limited impact on Bitcoin price

  • Free-to-play Web3 games hold the key to mass adoption

  • CoinGecko has acquired the NFT data infrastructure platform Zash

  • Amazon Managed Blockchain (AMB) Access supports Polygon PoS

This week marks a return to normalcy in the markets following the US Thanksgiving celebrations!

Investors and analysts are focused on whether the trends of a weaker US Dollar (USD), low cross-asset volatility, and the ascent of gold and Bitcoin will persist.

Thus far:

  • New Homes Sales for October were lower than anticipated, while CB Consumer Confidence exceeded expectations.

  • Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday collectively leaned towards a dovish (refer to Issue #18) stance, with markets already pricing in potential rate cuts as early as May or June 2024. The sentiment is optimistic for mid-2024, barring unforeseen black swan events.

 Looking ahead, key economic releases to watch:

  • Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

  • Fed Beige Book Release.

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation.

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

  • Developments from the OPEC+ Meeting, where expectations for deeper output cuts are low, and the focus is on a possible extension into 2024.

  • FOMC members Goolsbee, Mester, and Williams are scheduled to speak throughout the week.

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak this Friday.

Earnings season is winding down. The most anticipated earnings releases this week are shown in the chart below.

This Week’s High-Impact Global Economic Data Highlights:

  • China Industrial Profits

  • China Manufacturing and Services PMI

  • Australia Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Republic Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

  • Euro Area CPI

This week's anticipated bias (not financial or investment advice):

  • Monday (11/27/23) - Look for buys

  • Tuesday (11/28/23) - Expect volatility

  • Wednesday (11/29/23) - Buy the low

  • Thursday (11/30/23) - Expect end of month selling

  • Friday (12/01/23) - Secure your profits

Trading Tip: Develop a solid trading plan and stick to it!

Week 11/19/23 - 11/25/23 Recap

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.